Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 39.182872 42.777925 46.794977 51.668087 57.493091 64.331654 73.123945
2025-08-24 33.316736 37.769995 43.103309 50.123652 59.392838 71.660851 90.028164
2025-08-31 31.378679 36.566054 43.110946 52.305458 65.523714 85.095249 119.513679
2025-09-07 28.736344 34.027002 40.911551 50.979902 66.279657 90.784555 139.653689
2025-09-14 26.739345 32.062557 39.161735 49.891247 66.983247 96.363407 162.711569
2025-09-21 24.663753 29.794434 36.738013 47.445063 65.013845 96.645770 174.673037
2025-09-28 23.526289 28.696139 35.828522 47.125014 66.427756 103.557335 208.600612
2025-10-05 23.505912 29.115427 37.097848 50.313593 74.531599 127.174259 327.771314
2025-10-12 22.488165 28.043865 36.059424 49.601025 75.252322 134.578198 405.532292
2025-10-19 21.869319 27.499975 35.763635 50.084889 78.404650 149.706447 587.873533
2025-10-26 21.571015 27.396696 36.125127 51.736310 84.355897 176.699740 1176.625415
2025-11-02 21.200705 27.157094 36.242151 52.950225 89.675066 206.598688 3748.807291
2025-11-09 20.093726 25.890096 34.840822 51.627596 89.907839 223.556179 141542.451134
2025-11-16 19.017138 24.628543 33.388146 50.106055 89.534286 240.198419 NaN
2025-11-23 18.707007 24.512125 33.804098 52.285376 99.643917 332.628385 NaN
2025-11-30 17.860024 23.496208 32.596149 50.960749 99.477912 364.951620 NaN
2025-12-07 17.130268 22.623183 31.566275 49.872795 99.733687 405.988872 NaN
2025-12-14 16.255634 21.476861 29.985165 47.428150 95.093996 391.736233 NaN
2025-12-21 15.766259 20.924047 29.411685 47.108299 97.298506 463.037140 NaN
2025-12-28 15.804165 21.218905 30.359662 50.294869 113.056717 932.597652 NaN
2026-01-04 15.318431 20.629440 29.655865 49.582758 114.209017 1173.976778 NaN
2026-01-11 15.017064 20.329722 29.464995 50.066312 120.557790 2125.215536 NaN
2026-01-18 14.870982 20.279658 29.734093 51.716659 133.263953 17584.894677 NaN